How Political Factors Are Affecting the Aviation Industry

For much of the world, 2025 has shaped up as a rebound year for commercial aviation. Global airline profitability is improving, driven by strong international demand and falling jet fuel prices. Yet inside the United States, the aviation sector faces political, economic, and labor headwinds that threaten destabilization.

Multiple overlapping forces, including aviation tariffs, workforce shortages, and regulatory uncertainty, are creating turbulence in boardrooms and throughout supply chains. As domestic airlines attempt to modernize fleets, recruit skilled workers, and maintain profitability, they are increasingly caught in the crossfire of trade wars and cultural conflicts.

The growing impact of aviation tariffs

The most immediate flashpoint is tariffs. In April 2025, President Trump’s administration reimposed broad tariffs on imported aircraft, engines, and parts. The new levies extend to most European-built Airbus models, Brazilian-made Embraer jets, and foreign aerospace components used by U.S. manufacturers like Boeing and GE.

Delta Air Lines has been vocal about the financial and operational damage. In filings to the U.S. Commerce Department, Delta warned that tariffs could force the airline to suspend existing Airbus orders and cancel flights serving up to 10 million passengers annually. Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian reiterated during the airline's earnings call that “we will not be paying tariffs on any aircraft deliveries we take”.

Delta has over 285 aircraft on order, with the vast majority coming from Airbus, many of which are assembled outside the United States and are fully exposed to tariff costs. The potential duties would add 10–20% on top of the list price.

Other carriers are feeling the squeeze. Alaska Airlines was forced to cancel 14 flights per day after declining delivery of new Embraer 175 jets that would have triggered tariff penalties. The Brazilian-made aircraft were originally scheduled for delivery in May 2025, but now sit idle.

While Delta and Alaska are taking a hard line, United Airlines has chosen a more diplomatic approach. United CEO Scott Kirby expressed support for the Trump administration, framing it as a long-term effort to rebuild U.S. manufacturing. Critics note this may reflect United's desire to maintain political access and curry favor in the form of possible exemptions.

Meanwhile, Boeing faces collateral damage of its own. Although Boeing is technically a domestic manufacturer, many components are sourced globally, including significant parts from the EU and Mexico. China's retaliatory tariffs against Boeing, imposed in parallel to U.S. tariffs on Airbus, have already forced the repatriation of multiple new Boeing aircraft and blocked deliveries.

Industry trade groups have warned of cascading consequences. The Aerospace Industries Association, Airlines for America, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce have all urged the administration to restore the long-standing tariff-free regime established under the 1979 Civil Aircraft Agreement, citing threats to U.S. manufacturing, safety, and consumer pricing.

The Commerce Department’s Section 232 investigation into national security risks posed by imported aircraft and engines remains ongoing. The investigation was formally launched on May 1, 2025, with final findings not expected until early 2026. In the meantime, airlines and manufacturers remain in limbo, with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury warning, “It’s very damaging to the U.S. industry”.

Labor shortages: An emerging bottleneck

While tariff battles dominate headlines, a deeper and potentially more intractable threat looms: the industry’s growing labor crisis. The U.S. aviation workforce is aging out faster than new recruits are entering, especially among aircraft technicians, mechanics, and manufacturing staff.

The average age of certified aircraft mechanics in the U.S. is now 54, with 40% already over age 60. This reflects decades of underinvestment in vocational training. According to data from the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) and consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the U.S. faces a projected shortfall of 25,000 aircraft technicians by 2028 if current trends continue.

COVID-era layoffs and early retirement buyouts only worsened the shortage. Many highly experienced workers left during the pandemic downturn and have not returned. This also hit the web of suppliers supporting aerospace production. GE Aerospace, which manufactures engines for both Boeing and Airbus through its joint venture with Safran, has had to aggressively scale recruiting to meet resurging demand.

The pay reflects the desperation for talent. American Airlines technicians can now earn up to $130,000 annually after nine years on the job; base pay at GE’s engine plant in Indiana averages $80,000–$90,000. Even so, finding qualified recruits remains difficult, especially in rural or smaller markets.

The pipeline problem starts early. Flight schools, maintenance training programs, and high school vocational partnerships have seen growing demand but struggle to scale fast enough. At Aviation High School in Queens, New York, one of the nation’s premier public aviation training schools, over 5,000 students applied for only 2,000 slots this year. Many students are opting to enter the workforce directly from such programs, bypassing college entirely.

Airlines have responded by investing in recruitment initiatives that target younger demographics earlier, including partnerships with middle schools to spark interest in aviation careers.

Political headwinds: DEI, lawsuits, and culture wars

Beyond economics, the aviation sector has been pulled into America’s broader political and cultural battles. Once relatively insulated, airlines now find themselves navigating a DEI minefield.

United Airlines has made some of the industry’s boldest diversity commitments, pledging that 50% of new pilots trained at its Aviate Academy would be women or people of color United says 80% of its first Aviate Academy graduating class in 2022 met this diversity target.

CEO Scott Kirby has repeatedly argued that expanding the pipeline makes business sense as pilot shortages loom. “We needed pilots, where can we get them? We have a big population that happens to be diverse,” Kirby said.

However, conservative backlash has been fierce. Viral posts on X (formerly Twitter) attacked United and other carriers, accusing them of prioritizing “hiring quotas” over safety, even though pilot certification standards remain identical for all applicants.

The battle has now moved into the legal arena. America First Legal, led by former Trump advisor Stephen Miller, has filed multiple federal complaints accusing United, American, and Southwest of discrimination against white men under federal contracting law. The lawsuits argue that as federal contractors, airlines cannot implement hiring goals based on race or gender.

Meanwhile, diversity advocates insist these efforts are necessary to correct systemic barriers that have excluded women and minorities for generations. “It’s about awareness and access,” said Dana Donati, CEO of Breaking Down Barriers, which recruits underrepresented groups into pilot training. Unlike college, there are no federal grants for flight training; certifications can cost up to $100,000 which creates significant financial hurdles.

The supersonic policy shift: Deregulation meets innovation

While labor shortages and tariff disputes dominate aviation headlines, supersonic flight is one area where the Trump administration is aggressively pushing reform. In June 2025, President Trump issued an executive order aimed at fully repealing long-standing bans on overland supersonic commercial flights within U.S. airspace.

Citing outdated noise regulations dating back to the 1970s, the administration is moving to repeal 14 CFR 91.817 within 180 days of the order. The order directs the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to establish interim noise standards and launch a rulemaking process for permanent certification guidelines.

The White House frames this shift as an effort to reclaim global leadership in advanced aerospace technology, stating: “Outdated and overly restrictive regulations have grounded the promise of supersonic flight over land, stifling American ingenuity, weakening our global competitiveness, and ceding leadership to foreign adversaries”.

The policy also calls for greater international coordination. The FAA and the Department of State are negotiating bilateral agreements with foreign aviation regulators and engaging with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to establish consistent global standards.

Industry advocates argue that dramatic advances in noise reduction technology now make commercial supersonic travel feasible. However, environmental groups and some international regulators remain skeptical that the U.S. can unilaterally rewrite standards without addressing broader concerns about carbon emissions, climate impact, and noise exposure.

Aviation policy shifts place significant pressure on the FAA and industry developers such as Boom Supersonic, Lockheed Martin, and others that have been developing next-generation supersonic prototypes. However, it also risks reigniting trade friction, as Europe may resist U.S. unilateral deregulation of supersonic airspace rules.

FAA turmoil: Staffing cuts raise new safety concerns

Even as the Trump administration pushes deregulation in one area, it is simultaneously downsizing key aviation oversight functions. In February 2025, the Department of Transportation announced mass dismissals at the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration).

Roughly 400 probationary FAA employees were fired, many of whom were hired within the last year into positions ranging from flight operations program specialists to aviation safety assistants and maintenance mechanics. While the administration insists that no active air traffic controllers were let go, union officials contend that the purge eliminated critical support personnel.

These employees were devoted to their jobs and the safety-critical mission of the FAA,” said David Spero, president of the Professional Aviation Safety Specialists union, which represents 11,000 FAA employees. Spero warned that the decision would burden a workforce “already stretched thin.” 

The cuts came just weeks after a series of fatal air accidents in Alaska, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., raising alarms about whether aggressive cost-cutting might compromise safety.

More broadly, the downsizing reflects Trump’s larger campaign promise to shrink the federal workforce. A February 2025 executive order authorized sweeping reductions across multiple agencies, exempting only narrowly defined public safety roles.

Industry leaders are now grappling with mixed messages. The administration is simultaneously pushing to deregulate new technologies like supersonic travel while reducing the very workforce tasked with overseeing safety and compliance. This policy tension is adding to widespread industry unease.

Industry outlook for 2025: Defying global economic headwinds

Amid aviation tariffs, policy turbulence, labor shortages, and regulatory shakeups, the industry’s financial performance has shown surprising resilience in 2025. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global net profits will climb to $36 billion this year, up from $32.4 billion in 2024.

Two key factors are at play.

Notably, North America remains the most profitable region, while Asia-Pacific is posting the fastest year-over-year demand growth at 9% revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) expansion.

Still, optimism is cautious. Airline CEOs acknowledge that even mild macroeconomic shocks can quickly destabilize the sector. Air India’s CEO Campbell Wilson told CNBC: “Uncertainty is not helpful for business, but the underlying fundamentals of this market … are driving us forward”.

Meanwhile, domestic demand in the U.S. is softening, particularly among lower-fare segments and government travel, which has been curtailed by sharp federal spending reductions.

Volatility becomes the new normal

The aviation industry’s landscape in 2025 is defined by sharp contradictions: aggressive deregulation of supersonic flight, labor shortages, diversity debates, and escalating tariff wars. Airlines are operating amid complex and rapidly shifting policy currents on multiple fronts.

For U.S. carriers, the tariff battle remains one of the most consequential flashpoints. Delta’s refusal to absorb tariffs and its creative workaround of international delivery routes highlights the stakes for carriers heavily dependent on foreign production. Meanwhile, Alaska Airlines’ canceled routes and deferred deliveries reflect the growing operational costs now filtering down to consumers.

At the same time, the broader labor crisis in manufacturing and skilled aviation poses a deeper systemic challenge. While many leaders champion a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing, the workforce pipeline needed to fulfill those ambitions remains dangerously thin, with projected shortfalls of 25,000 aircraft technicians by 2028.

Adding to this volatility, the highly polarized debate over diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and with new legal complaints from conservative organizations like America First Legal.

The only constant in 2025’s aviation landscape is instability in the skies, boardrooms, government agencies, factory floors, and international trade negotiations. The result is a profitable but politically unstable sector.

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