China Weighs Major Airbus Order, Posing Challenge for Boeing

China’s Potential Airbus Acquisition and Its Implications

China is reportedly engaged in advanced negotiations to place a substantial order for Airbus aircraft, with a decision expected as early as next month. The discussions involve several Chinese airlines and could culminate in the purchase of approximately 300 planes, including both narrowbody and widebody models. This prospective deal marks a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the global commercial aviation market, presenting a formidable challenge to Boeing. The American aerospace giant has faced difficulties securing sales in China amid ongoing trade tensions and internal operational challenges.

This potential Airbus contract underscores the evolving dynamics within the aerospace industry, where geopolitical factors and changing market preferences increasingly influence procurement decisions. For Boeing, the loss of such a large order would exacerbate existing pressures and potentially diminish its market share in one of the fastest-growing aviation sectors worldwide.

Boeing’s Market Outlook and Financial Performance

Wall Street analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on Boeing’s stock. Based on the consensus of 23 analysts, the average one-year price target for Boeing is $218.27, with estimates ranging from $140.00 to $260.00. This target suggests a modest upside of approximately 2.27% from the current trading price of $213.43. Furthermore, the consensus recommendation from 29 brokerage firms assigns Boeing an average rating of 2.0, corresponding to an "Outperform" status on a scale where 1 indicates Strong Buy and 5 denotes Sell.

In contrast, valuation data from GuruFocus presents a more conservative outlook, estimating a one-year fair value of $188.18 for Boeing. This figure implies a potential downside of nearly 12% from the current price and is derived from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance projections.

Recent Business Developments and Financial Results

Boeing’s latest quarterly results, released on April 23, 2025, reveal a mixed yet generally improving financial performance. The company reported revenue of $19.5 billion, an 18% increase primarily driven by higher commercial aircraft deliveries. Despite this growth, Boeing recorded a core loss per share of $0.49, which nonetheless represented a significant improvement compared to the previous year.

Free cash flow usage amounted to $2.3 billion, reflecting increased commercial deliveries alongside more efficient working capital management. The Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) segment generated $8.1 billion in revenue but operated at a negative margin of 6.6%. During the quarter, BCA delivered 130 airplanes and saw its backlog rise by over $25 billion sequentially, reaching $460 billion.

The Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) division reported revenue of $6.3 billion, down 9% due to planned lower volume, but improved its operating margin by 30 basis points to 2.5%. Meanwhile, the Boeing Global Services (BGS) segment maintained stable revenue at $5.1 billion and increased its operating margin by 40 basis points to 18.6%.

Boeing’s balance sheet showed $23.7 billion in cash and marketable securities, while its debt balance decreased slightly by $300 million to $53.6 billion. These figures reflect ongoing efforts to strengthen liquidity and manage financial obligations amid a challenging operating environment.

Further details on Boeing’s strategic priorities and operational outlook are available in the full earnings call transcript.