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COMAC Aims to Triple Aircraft Deliveries by 2030

COMAC Aims to Triple Aircraft Deliveries by 2030 Amid Intensifying Competition
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is poised to significantly expand its presence in the commercial aviation sector, with projections indicating a more than threefold increase in annual aircraft deliveries by 2030. According to aviation market intelligence firm IBA, COMAC is expected to deliver 50 aircraft in 2025, rising steadily to 57 in 2026, 79 in 2027, and approximately 90 in 2028, before reaching an ambitious target of 145 deliveries by the end of the decade. This growth underscores China’s strategic objective to establish an independent and competitive commercial aviation industry.
Growth Driven by Key Aircraft Programs
The expansion will be primarily driven by the C919 narrowbody aircraft program, complemented by ongoing production of the C909 regional jet and the development of the future C929 widebody model. By 2030, COMAC is anticipated to secure around 65% of new narrowbody aircraft deliveries to Chinese operators. Despite this strong domestic foothold, when accounting for the existing fleets of Airbus and Boeing aircraft, COMAC’s share will represent only about 7% of China’s total in-service fleet. On a global scale, the C919 and C909 combined are projected to constitute roughly 2% of the world’s commercial aircraft fleet by 2030. While this remains a modest share, it marks the beginning of a challenge to the long-established Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
Challenges in Supply Chain and Certification
COMAC’s ambitious expansion is not without significant obstacles. The resumption of U.S. export licenses for critical engines—the CFM LEAP-1C and GE CF34-10A—in July 2025 has provided some stability to production lines. However, the company’s continued dependence on imported engines and avionics exposes it to potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks. Although stockpiled components offer temporary relief, the domestically developed CJ-1000A engine, which could reduce this reliance, remains several years away from commercial deployment.
Certification hurdles also constrain COMAC’s international ambitions. The C919, which entered service in 2023, is unlikely to receive validation from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) before 2028. This delay limits COMAC’s ability to expand sales beyond the Chinese market. In response, the company is concentrating on strengthening its domestic operations and pursuing selective regional placements to build operational credibility and market presence.
Market Dynamics and Competitive Responses
The rise of COMAC has elicited varied reactions within the global aviation industry. Boeing’s outlook has improved with the prospect of a substantial 500-aircraft deal with China, while Airbus is projected to surpass Boeing in total deliveries. Both established manufacturers are intensifying production and forging strategic partnerships to defend their market share, heightening competition as COMAC scales up its output. Additionally, concerns about market saturation and the resilience of global supply chains add complexity to the competitive landscape COMAC must navigate.
Operational Progress and Future Prospects
As of August 2025, IBA Insight data indicates that COMAC’s in-service fleet comprises 182 aircraft, predominantly operated by China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines, with smaller fleets at Chengdu Airlines, China Express, VietJet, and Lao Airlines. Operational reliability is gradually improving: the average daily utilization of the C909 has increased to 3.4 hours, up from less than one hour in 2018, while the C919 averages 2.6 hours per day since entering service. Although these figures remain below the narrowbody industry benchmark of seven hours, they are expected to improve as maintenance networks expand and operator confidence strengthens.
While COMAC is unlikely to rival the scale of Airbus or Boeing within this decade, its steady progress, supported by strong domestic demand and political backing, positions it as an emerging competitor in the global commercial aviation market. Incremental advancements in international certification and operational reliability are anticipated to enhance COMAC’s role in the years ahead.

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