Airbus Revises Down Aircraft Delivery Growth Forecast

Airbus Lowers Long-Term Aircraft Delivery Growth Forecast Amid Market Uncertainties

TOULOUSE — Airbus has revised its long-term forecast for global aircraft deliveries, signaling a more cautious outlook amid shifting trade dynamics, political uncertainties, and a subdued economic environment. The European aerospace leader now anticipates 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next two decades. This projection represents a 2.3% increase from last year’s estimate but marks a notable slowdown compared to the previously forecasted 3.9% year-on-year growth.

Economic and Trade Factors Influencing the Forecast

The revision reflects Airbus’s decision to lower its assumed global GDP growth rate for the period to 2.5%, down from 2.6%, alongside a reduction in the global trade growth forecast to 2.6%, compared with 3.1% in the prior outlook. These adjustments underscore the impact of ongoing trade tensions and a more cautious economic outlook, which Airbus executives identify as key factors affecting demand in certain markets.

Antonio Da Costa, Vice President of Market Analysis & Forecast for Airbus Commercial Aircraft, highlighted that current tariff levels have been incorporated into the forecast, though the highest tariff rates previously proposed by the Trump administration were excluded. He warned that a significant escalation in tariffs could trigger a “COVID-like impact on trade,” yet emphasized that airline demand remains resilient and continues to support fleet expansion.

Despite the tempered growth expectations, Airbus CEO Commercial Aircraft Christian Scherer affirmed that the company has not observed a fundamental decline in customer demand, except potentially within the more domestically focused U.S. market. “We have not, at this moment, seen an inflection… fundamentally in demand from our customers,” Scherer stated.

Regional Demand and Market Implications

The updated forecast projects approximately 34,250 single-aisle aircraft deliveries, an increase from 33,510 in the previous 20-year period, alongside 8,200 widebody passenger aircraft, up from 7,980. Freighter deliveries are expected to reach 970 units, slightly exceeding last year’s projection.

Demand is anticipated to be concentrated primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, with China alone accounting for 9,570 deliveries and other countries in the region expected to receive 10,050 aircraft. North America is forecasted to take delivery of 6,810 units, while Europe and former Soviet states are projected to receive 8,070 aircraft. The share of available seat miles is expected to shift significantly, with Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the total by 2044, up from less than 40% today.

Airbus’s more cautious outlook may have broader implications for the aerospace industry. The revised forecast could prompt increased scrutiny from investors and airlines, particularly in light of ongoing production delays. Market reactions might include a decline in Airbus’s stock price as expectations are tempered. Competitors such as Boeing may seek to leverage Airbus’s challenges by emphasizing their own delivery performance to capture greater market share. Concurrently, airlines may reconsider their fleet expansion strategies in response to the industry-wide slowdown, potentially affecting both major manufacturers.

Airbus also noted that more than 14,000 single-aisle aircraft remain in manufacturers’ backlogs, with just over 20,050 units yet to be competed. While lower fuel prices provide some relief against weaker GDP projections, the company remains vigilant regarding the potential impact of further trade disruptions and economic headwinds.