Alton Projects Global MRO Spending to Reach $153 Billion by 2035

Alton Projects Global MRO Spending to Reach $153 Billion by 2035

Global expenditure on maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) in the aviation sector is projected to increase steadily over the next decade, reaching $153 billion by 2035. This forecast is detailed in Alton Aviation Consultancy’s recently published 2025-2035 Global MRO Demand Forecast, which anticipates an annual growth rate of 1.9%, rising from $124 billion in 2025. The growth is driven by airlines worldwide responding to increasing passenger demand and evolving fleet requirements.

Regional Trends and Market Drivers

Alton’s analysis reveals significant regional variations in MRO demand. North America is expected to experience the highest growth rate at 2.7% annually, primarily due to rising engine-related costs and heightened activity in aircraft modifications. Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific region is projected to remain the largest MRO market, accounting for more than one-third of global spending by 2035.

Adam Guthorn, managing director at Alton’s New York office and co-author of the report, emphasized the resilience of MRO demand despite ongoing supply chain challenges that have increased costs. He noted that airlines are focusing on expanding capacity to accommodate growing passenger numbers. With fewer aircraft retirements, older and more maintenance-intensive planes are remaining in service longer. Additionally, fleets are increasingly dependent on new-generation engines, many of which are experiencing early reliability issues. These factors, combined with original equipment manufacturer (OEM) production delays and inflation in labor and materials, are contributing to a robust MRO market.

Dominance of Engine Maintenance and Emerging Segments

Engine maintenance continues to dominate the MRO sector, representing nearly half of all expenditures. Alan Lim, director at Alton’s Singapore office and co-author of the report, highlighted that durability challenges with new-generation engines are a significant driver of these costs. He also pointed to cabin modifications as one of the fastest-growing segments within MRO. Spending in this area is expected to increase from $4.3 billion in 2025 to $6.6 billion by 2035, reflecting airlines’ investments in fleet upgrades and enhanced passenger experiences.

Risks and Industry Adaptation

The report also warns of potential volatility in the MRO market due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Risks such as a possible global recession and ongoing geopolitical tensions—including increased trade friction and U.S.-led tariffs—could affect aircraft utilization rates and suppress MRO demand. Despite these challenges, the industry is expected to adapt by enhancing service offerings and optimizing supply chains.

Market responses are already visible through increased investment in MRO technologies and infrastructure aimed at improving efficiency and managing rising costs. Innovations in predictive maintenance are anticipated to play a crucial role in enabling more efficient operations and mitigating some of the cost pressures. Furthermore, the aviation sector’s commitment to sustainability—through the adoption of more fuel-efficient engines and exploration of alternative fuels—is likely to influence MRO strategies and investment decisions in the coming years.

Alton’s forecast highlights significant opportunities for innovation and growth within the global MRO market as it approaches the $153 billion threshold by 2035.