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African Airlines Experience 15.6% Increase in Holiday Cargo Demand

African Airlines Lead Global Growth in Holiday Cargo Demand
African airlines experienced a remarkable 15.6% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in November 2025, the highest growth rate among all global regions, according to the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This surge was driven primarily by heightened activity during the holiday season and was accompanied by an 18.1% rise in cargo capacity across the continent.
Expansion in Passenger and Cargo Capacity
The festive period also highlighted significant developments within Africa’s aviation sector. Ethiopian Airlines retained its status as the continent’s largest carrier by scheduled seat capacity, while South African Airways recorded the fastest growth among Africa’s top ten airlines, expanding its capacity by 33.5% compared to the previous year. Cairo International Airport emerged as Africa’s busiest airport by scheduled seats, reflecting Egypt’s dominant position in the regional aviation market, which accounted for approximately three million seats during the holiday season.
Overall, airline capacity across Africa reached 25.2 million seats in December 2025, marking a 6.8% increase from December 2024. This growth in both cargo and passenger capacity underscores Africa’s expanding role in global air transport. However, it also raises concerns about potential pressures on operational efficiency and infrastructure as the industry scales rapidly.
Global Context and Market Dynamics
On a global scale, air cargo demand grew by 5.5% year-on-year in November, as shippers prioritized timely deliveries ahead of the year-end holidays. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, attributed this resilience to strong emerging market demand and selective growth in the Middle East, which offset softness in the Americas amid ongoing adjustments to the new US tariff regime. He emphasized that the robust performance in the fourth quarter, shaped by strategic trade re-routing, bodes well for the industry’s outlook entering 2026.
Several factors influenced the operating environment in November. Global goods trade expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in October. Despite falling crude oil prices, jet fuel prices rose by 5.9% due to refinery disruptions, European Union restrictions on Russian products, and limited refining capacity, pushing crack spreads to nearly double those of the previous year. Meanwhile, global manufacturing sentiment improved, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising for the fourth consecutive month to 51.17. However, new export orders remained cautious, registering slightly below the 50-point threshold at 49.87, reflecting ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs.
Regional Variations and Industry Outlook
Regional performance varied considerably. Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 10.3% increase in cargo demand alongside an 8.4% rise in capacity. European carriers experienced a 5.8% growth in cargo demand with a 4.1% increase in capacity. Middle Eastern airlines reported a 7.4% rise in cargo demand and an 11.0% increase in capacity. In contrast, North American carriers faced a 1.6% decline in cargo demand and a 2.3% reduction in capacity, while Latin American and Caribbean airlines recorded decreases of 4.8% in cargo demand and 3.0% in capacity.
Looking ahead to 2026, the air transport industry anticipates intensified competition. Major carriers such as Delta and United Airlines are expected to lead in profitability, whereas lower-cost airlines may encounter greater vulnerability to economic fluctuations. For African airlines, the challenge will be to sustain rapid growth while maintaining operational resilience and efficiency amid evolving market conditions.

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