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Forecast for U.S. Commercial Fleet and MRO Growth Through 2026

October 16, 2025By ePlane AI
Forecast for U.S. Commercial Fleet and MRO Growth Through 2026
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Commercial Fleet Forecast
MRO Growth
Aircraft Deliveries

Forecast for U.S. Commercial Fleet and MRO Growth Through 2026

The Aviation Week Network’s recently published 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) forecast outlines a promising outlook for the U.S. aviation industry, despite ongoing challenges such as supply chain disruptions and increasing engine maintenance demands. Sustained global demand for air travel is expected to drive accelerated commercial aircraft deliveries, which are projected to peak at over 2,200 units annually by the end of the decade.

Commercial Fleet Expansion and Production Dynamics

Although aircraft deliveries are anticipated to experience a slight decline in the near term, the long-term forecast remains optimistic. Leading manufacturers, including Airbus and Boeing, are expected to increase production as they navigate supply chain constraints and certification hurdles. Currently, the industry holds more than 17,500 firm orders for new aircraft, reflecting steady and robust demand.

A significant factor influencing fleet growth is the replacement of aging aircraft, particularly in North America, where the average fleet age exceeds the global norm. This renewal process is projected to contribute to a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the global active in-service fleet over the next decade. However, delays in new aircraft deliveries have compelled airlines to extend the operational lifespan of older planes, thereby intensifying maintenance requirements and placing additional strain on the MRO sector.

Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Market Outlook

The forecast anticipates that unconditional demand for MRO services will reach $853 billion over the next ten years, with the overall MRO aftermarket expected to surpass $1.6 trillion, growing at a CAGR of 3.2%. This expansion is driven by heightened needs for unscheduled maintenance, engine overhauls, and the replacement of life-limited parts.

Narrowbody aircraft are projected to dominate the market, accounting for approximately 75% of the more than 21,000 global aircraft deliveries anticipated over the coming decade. Airbus is expected to maintain its lead over Boeing in this segment, with the A320 family surpassing the 737 in-service fleet by roughly 3,000 aircraft by 2035. The extended use of older aircraft, a consequence of production and supply chain challenges, is increasing maintenance costs, particularly in the engine sector. Additionally, the increased utilization and durability challenges associated with newer narrowbody engines are likely to have significant implications for MRO providers.

Industry Challenges and Strategic Responses

The forecast highlights the necessity for increased investment in MRO infrastructure and workforce development to support the expanding fleet. Competition among MRO providers is expected to intensify as airlines seek dependable partners to manage growing maintenance demands. In response, market participants may pursue strategic partnerships, acquisitions, and broadened service offerings to capture greater market share.

Furthermore, evolving regulatory frameworks and rapid technological advancements are anticipated to reshape market dynamics and operational strategies within the MRO sector. Both providers and airlines will need to demonstrate adaptability to navigate these changes effectively.

As the U.S. commercial aviation sector embarks on a decade of growth, the interplay between fleet modernization, rising MRO demand, and competitive industry dynamics will be pivotal in defining its trajectory through 2026 and beyond.

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LOT Polish Airlines Teams Up with Turkish Technic to Improve Fleet Reliability

LOT Polish Airlines Teams Up with Turkish Technic to Improve Fleet Reliability

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United Airlines Reports AI Reduced Management Roles by 4%

United Airlines Reports AI Reduced Management Roles by 4%

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Flight Training Management Software Market Projected to Grow Significantly by 2032

Flight Training Management Software Market Projected to Grow Significantly by 2032

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VSE Aviation and Eaton Partner on USM Program

VSE Aviation and Eaton Partner on USM Program

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AerFin Installs Two PW1100 Engines on Fifth A320neo Aircraft

AerFin Installs Two PW1100 Engines on Fifth A320neo Aircraft

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American eCTOL Aircraft Completes Pioneering Electric Flight in New Zealand

American eCTOL Aircraft Completes Pioneering Electric Flight in New Zealand

American eCTOL Aircraft Completes Pioneering Electric Flight in New Zealand At dawn in Tauranga, New Zealand, a significant milestone in aviation was achieved as the Beta Alia CX300 electric aircraft completed its inaugural flight under the Air New Zealand banner. This event, marked by a traditional blessing ceremony, signifies the airline’s initial venture into electric aviation, reinforcing its reputation for innovation dating back to its early flying boat services between Auckland and Sydney. Testing and Operational Plans Following the successful maiden flight, the Alia CX300 was relocated from Tauranga Airport to Hamilton Airport, where it will undergo a comprehensive series of test flights designed to assess its performance across varying weather and altitude conditions. Later in the year, the aircraft is scheduled to operate flights between Wellington and Blenheim, with Wellington Airport serving as its next base. To facilitate these operations, Air New Zealand has equipped Hamilton, Wellington, and Blenheim airports with 65kW mobile chargers, funded through the airline’s Climate and Nature Fund. These chargers are integral to the Tech Demonstrator program, which will span four months and provide pilots, engineers, and the public with hands-on experience of this next-generation electric aircraft. The program’s objectives include evaluating the Alia’s capabilities within New Zealand’s distinct environment and preparing airline personnel for the transition to electric flight operations. Additionally, passengers will have opportunities to observe the aircraft up close prior to its entry into regular service. Aircraft Selection and Specifications Air New Zealand’s choice of Beta Technologies’ Alia as the inaugural aircraft for its Mission Next Gen Aircraft initiative, launched in 2021, followed a rigorous global selection process involving 30 manufacturers. Beta Technologies emerged as the first official partner, a testament to the Alia’s advanced design and operational potential. The aircraft’s distinctive form, inspired by an Arctic bird, is available in two variants: VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) and CTOL (conventional takeoff and landing). Air New Zealand has opted for the CTOL model, while New Zealand’s largest air ambulance service, NZAAS, has pre-ordered the eVTOL version. The Alia CTOL is capable of transporting up to 200 cubic feet (5.6 cubic meters) of cargo over distances approaching 400 kilometers (215 nautical miles). Engineered for rugged, all-weather conditions, it is compatible with existing airport infrastructure, thereby facilitating a smoother integration into current aviation operations. Despite these advances, the aircraft is not expected to join Air New Zealand’s fleet for several years. Industry Context and Challenges The electric aviation sector is experiencing rapid growth, with this flight marking a notable advancement that has attracted increased market interest. Companies such as Archer Aviation have garnered heightened attention, while competitors like Vertical Aerospace are accelerating development and certification efforts for their own electric aircraft, including ambitious flying taxi projects. Major industry players, including GE, are investing in hybrid-electric propulsion technologies, exemplified by their partnership with Beta Technologies, underscoring the intense competition and innovation propelling the sector forward. Nonetheless, significant challenges persist, particularly in the thermal management of electric propulsion systems. The development of advanced heat exchangers, especially for hydrogen-electric configurations, is becoming critical to ensuring safety and operational efficiency as the industry moves toward broader adoption of electric flight.
Rolls-Royce Introduces LessorCare+ Program with Avolon as First Partner

Rolls-Royce Introduces LessorCare+ Program with Avolon as First Partner

Rolls-Royce Launches LessorCare+ Program with Avolon as First Partner Rolls-Royce has introduced LessorCare+, an enhanced service program specifically designed to support aircraft lessors. The company announced Avolon as the inaugural partner for this initiative, marking a significant development in its engagement with the leasing sector. Building upon the original LessorCare program, LessorCare+ broadens its scope to include comprehensive support for fleet management, transactional processes, and technical services. The program aims to simplify engine management for lessors and asset owners by providing integrated tools that enhance transparency, reduce operational risks, and improve lifecycle planning. Enhancing Fleet Management and Operational Efficiency LessorCare+ is designed to deliver faster response times and greater operational efficiency, reflecting Rolls-Royce’s commitment to adapting its services to meet evolving customer needs. The program offers clearer insights into engine status, facilitates smoother transitions between operators, and provides more predictable asset control. Luke Mallows, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Leasing at Rolls-Royce, emphasized the significance of the partnership with Avolon, stating that the launch represents a milestone in their longstanding collaboration. He highlighted the program’s role in supporting Avolon’s expanding fleet of Trent-powered aircraft and underscored Rolls-Royce’s dedication to serving asset owners and lessors, a key customer segment. Market Impact and Competitive Landscape The introduction of LessorCare+ coincides with a period of strong market performance for Rolls-Royce. The company has experienced a notable rise in its stock price and reported robust financial results following the announcement, indicating positive reception from investors and industry stakeholders. This initiative also strengthens Rolls-Royce’s relationship with Avolon and deepens its involvement with the global aircraft leasing community. Despite these advantages, Rolls-Royce faces challenges in a competitive environment where established lessors, including Avolon, operate their own asset management services. The company must ensure a seamless customer experience to maintain its competitive edge. Industry rivals are responding with similar programs, such as the expansion of the Engine Assurance Program, aimed at enhancing customer satisfaction and service offerings. Positioning Within Rolls-Royce’s Service Portfolio LessorCare+ complements Rolls-Royce’s broader portfolio of aftermarket services, including the CorporateCare Enhanced program, which has demonstrated tangible benefits for asset owners by increasing aircraft value and improving resale prospects. The new program represents a further evolution in Rolls-Royce’s approach to asset management, offering modern solutions that make the process more transparent, efficient, and reliable. Through LessorCare+, Rolls-Royce reinforces its position as a trusted partner in the aviation industry, emphasizing innovation, operational efficiency, and strengthened customer relationships amid a rapidly evolving and competitive market landscape.
Report from Radar M, a Capital Market Media Outlet

Report from Radar M, a Capital Market Media Outlet

BC Partners Credit Acquires Korea’s First Airline Leasing Firm in Landmark Deal IMM Investment announced on October 17 that it has entered into a stock purchase agreement to sell its entire stake in Creanza Aviation, a pioneering Korean aircraft leasing company, to BC Partners Credit. This transaction, which also involves global aircraft asset manager East Merchant Capital and FPG Amentum as acquisition partners, represents the first merger and acquisition deal of its kind within Korea’s airline leasing sector. Strategic Significance and Industry Context BC Partners Credit, the private equity credit division of the global alternative investment firm BC Partners, is spearheading the acquisition. The deal underscores IMM’s proficiency in managing aircraft financial platforms and asset recovery. Creanza Aviation has demonstrated consistent growth and profitability during the first half of the year, supported by stable operating lease income from prominent global airline clients. Baek Jin-heum, CEO of IMM Singapore, highlighted the complexities of aircraft finance in Korea, stating, “Airplane finance is often seen as a difficult asset class domestically, despite its stable profit structure. IMM has systematically managed the platform from lease inception to sale with a long-term perspective and expert oversight.” He further noted that Creanza Aviation maintained structural stability throughout the pandemic, successfully collecting full lease payments without reductions or deferrals. This acquisition occurs amid a broader capital market environment characterized by heightened competition and rapid innovation, particularly in technology-driven sectors. For example, Meta’s recent developments in smart glasses and livestreaming have elicited positive market responses, with its stock reaching highs of $796 before settling near $734. Nevertheless, Meta faces emerging challenges from AI-powered platforms such as OpenAI’s Sora 2-based social video app, which could disrupt the dominance of Instagram and Facebook’s vertical video formats. This dynamic competitive landscape reflects ongoing shifts across various industries, including aviation finance. Future Outlook and Transaction Details Ted Goldthorpe, CEO of BC Partners Credit, expressed confidence in the aviation sector’s long-term prospects, stating, “This acquisition reflects our continued confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the aviation industry. We plan to expand investment in high-quality aircraft assets and maximize value through flexible management across the asset lifecycle.” IMM’s proactive approach, including tenant lease extensions and a seamless sale process, has positioned the company to successfully recover its capital. Moving forward, IMM intends to explore new investment strategies and partnerships within aircraft finance and related real asset sectors. The transaction was supported by a team of advisors, with IMM represented by Goldman Sachs, Milbank, KPMG, Matheson, and Linden Partners. BC Partners Credit received counsel from Fieldsbury, Clifford Chance, KPMG, and McCann FitzGerald. The deal is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of this year, subject to customary closing conditions.
AAR and Eaton Partner to Expand EMEA Repair Network

AAR and Eaton Partner to Expand EMEA Repair Network

AAR and Eaton Expand EMEA Repair Network with New Partnership AAR CORP. has formalized a partnership with Eaton, becoming an authorised service centre for Eaton’s commercial aerospace customers across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). This collaboration enables AAR to provide local repair and overhaul services for Eaton’s hydraulic components used in large commercial aircraft. Operations will be conducted at AAR’s Component Services facility in Amsterdam, with the objective of delivering faster turnaround times and enhanced regional support for airlines. Strengthening Repair Capabilities and Customer Support The partnership is structured to reinforce Eaton’s repair capabilities by ensuring all maintenance work adheres strictly to official repair documentation and utilises genuine OEM spare parts. This commitment upholds the highest standards of quality and safety throughout the service process. Matt Norman, Vice President of Aftermarket and Commercial Services for Eaton’s Aerospace Group, emphasized that the agreement reflects a strategic effort to improve customer satisfaction by expanding options for hydraulic pump repairs and extending collaboration beyond spare parts distribution. Initially, AAR will concentrate on hydraulic pump repairs for commercial operators within the EMEA region, with plans to gradually expand its service offerings to additional products and territories. This initiative leverages AAR’s established expertise in aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, while supporting Eaton’s goal of enhancing customer service and reliability in global markets. Navigating Industry Challenges and Market Implications The expansion occurs amid persistent supply chain challenges that continue to impact turnaround times across the aerospace sector. Both companies face the task of proactively addressing these issues as the market closely observes AAR’s strategies for mitigating supply shortages. Furthermore, the partnership is expected to intensify competition within the region, with Eaton positioned to capitalise on its expanded service network to grow its product portfolio and market share. By combining AAR’s technical proficiency with Eaton’s trusted aerospace components, the collaboration aims to offer airlines greater operational flexibility and reduced maintenance downtime. The establishment of the authorised service centre in Amsterdam represents a significant strategic milestone for both companies, underscoring their shared commitment to innovation, quality, and customer satisfaction in the global aerospace industry.
Binter Signs Maintenance Agreement for ATR Aircraft

Binter Signs Maintenance Agreement for ATR Aircraft

Binter Signs Maintenance Agreement for ATR Aircraft Strategic Partnership to Support Regional Fleet ATR, the leading manufacturer of turboprop aircraft, has formalized a five-year Global Maintenance Agreement (GMA) with ATAVIS, the technical procurement and supply chain management division of regional airline Binter. This agreement is designed to support 26 ATR 72-600 aircraft operated by Binter’s subsidiaries CANAIR and NAYSA. Tailored specifically to meet Binter’s operational requirements, the contract encompasses a comprehensive repair loop service on a pay-by-hour basis, covering 180 part numbers. The collaboration follows extensive consultations aimed at addressing the unique challenges faced by Binter, ensuring that maintenance services are fully aligned with the airline’s operational needs. Javier Bretón, Chief Technical Officer at Binter, emphasized the importance of maintaining the fleet to the highest standards. He described the partnership with ATR as a strategic initiative that reinforces the airline’s commitment to operational excellence while leveraging the manufacturer’s technical expertise and proven support solutions. Stefano Marazzani, Senior Vice President of Customer Support and Services at ATR, welcomed Binter into the GMA community. He highlighted ATR’s dedication to providing flexible support solutions that enable customers to navigate daily operational challenges effectively. Industry Context and Challenges This agreement emerges amid mounting pressures within the regional aviation sector. ATR’s growth ambitions, particularly in markets such as the United States, are underscored by the relatively limited presence of ATR aircraft in the region—only 49 out of approximately 1,200 ATRs worldwide currently operate in the U.S. This situation underscores the necessity for expanded service capabilities to support anticipated growth. The industry is also grappling with widespread supply-chain delays, which are expected to increase airline costs by $11 billion this year. Such disruptions pose risks to maintenance operations and service delivery, elevating the importance of robust support agreements like the one between Binter and ATR. In response, competitors may seek to capitalize on their existing maintenance networks or forge new partnerships to maintain operational resilience. By strengthening its maintenance strategy through this agreement, Binter aligns itself with a broader industry trend toward securing reliable and adaptable support amid evolving market conditions and supply-chain challenges.
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