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Politics and Aviation in the Gulf Region

Politics and Aviation in the Gulf Region
Recent developments in the Gulf aviation sector underscore the strategic role of aircraft orders as instruments of regional diplomacy and economic planning. The substantial commitments made by Gulf carriers not only demonstrate their ambitions for fleet expansion but also highlight the broader geopolitical and commercial forces shaping the industry.
Strategic Aircraft Orders Amid Manufacturing Challenges
Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways have collectively placed an order for 238 jets from Boeing, a significant move given the ongoing production challenges faced by the manufacturer. Etihad alone accounts for 94 aircraft on order, divided between 53 Boeing jets and 41 from Airbus. While the headline value of these combined orders exceeds $110 billion, consultancy firm Ishka estimates the actual deal value to be closer to $31.5 billion, reflecting negotiated discounts and prevailing market conditions.
This surge in orders builds upon a pre-pandemic foundation where Gulf carriers—including Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and Flydubai—had already committed to over 500 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. The latest announcements add nearly half that number, despite persistent manufacturing delays and a global backlog that continues to challenge delivery schedules.
Aviation as a Diplomatic and Economic Tool
Industry experts emphasize that aircraft purchases in the Gulf extend beyond commercial considerations. John Grant, partner at Midas Aviation, describes aviation as “a high-profile statement of cooperation,” illustrating how these transactions serve broader political and economic objectives. In this context, aircraft orders become symbols of regional collaboration and competition, reflecting the intertwined nature of diplomacy and commerce in the Gulf.
Manufacturing Backlogs and Delivery Delays
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports a backlog exceeding 17,000 aircraft orders worldwide, a significant increase from the 10,000 to 11,000 orders recorded before the pandemic. This backlog translates into an average wait time of approximately 14 years for new aircraft. Although 1,692 deliveries are expected in 2025—the highest annual figure since 2018—this number remains 26% below earlier projections.
Delays have notably affected flagship models such as the Boeing 777X. Emirates CEO Tim Clark anticipates the first delivery between late 2026 and early 2027, a postponement from the original 2020 schedule. Meanwhile, Flyadeal CEO Steven Greenway has publicly criticized Airbus for delivery delays, describing them as “inexcusable” and lamenting the lack of transparency that complicates operational planning.
Airbus’s recent delivery performance reflects these challenges. In May 2025, the manufacturer delivered 51 aircraft, marking a 4% decline compared to the previous year. Total deliveries for the first five months of 2025 stand at approximately 243 jets, representing a 5% year-over-year decrease.
Industry Perspectives on Future Outlook
John Grant of Midas Aviation notes that while Gulf airlines may hope to accelerate deliveries, such outcomes depend on cancellations or queue-jumping—scenarios that appear unlikely in the current market environment. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, underscores the significant backlog and the difficulties manufacturers face in meeting global demand, factors that continue to influence the pace of aviation recovery.
Despite these uncertainties, regional airline leaders remain optimistic. Executives from Emirates, Etihad, and Flydubai acknowledge the challenges in delivery timelines but express confidence in their ability to expand fleets over the coming decade, reinforcing the Gulf’s position as a pivotal hub in international aviation.
The Gulf’s aviation sector remains a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and economic ambition. Aircraft orders serve not only as commercial transactions but also as potent symbols and tools of regional cooperation and competition, shaping the future trajectory of global air travel.