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IATA Warns Supply Chain Disruptions May Cost Airlines $11 Billion in 2025

IATA Warns Supply Chain Disruptions May Cost Airlines $11 Billion in 2025
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in collaboration with consulting firm Oliver Wyman, has issued a sobering forecast regarding the financial impact of ongoing aerospace supply chain disruptions. Their joint report, Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain, warns that persistent delays in aircraft and parts production could impose costs exceeding $11 billion on airlines in 2025. These disruptions are compelling carriers to rely on older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, thereby escalating operational expenses and constraining industry expansion.
Financial Impact and Industry Challenges
The report details the anticipated financial burdens for airlines in 2025, attributing $4.2 billion to excess fuel consumption resulting from the use of aging jets. Additional maintenance costs are projected to reach $3.1 billion, while engine leasing expenses are expected to increase by $2.6 billion, reflecting lease rate hikes of 20 to 30 percent since 2019. Furthermore, inventory holding costs for spare parts are estimated to rise by $1.4 billion. These figures underscore the significant economic strain placed on airlines amid a record global aircraft backlog of 17,000 units in 2024, even as passenger demand continues to outstrip available capacity. This imbalance not only inflates operational costs but also hampers airlines’ ability to modernize and expand their fleets.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh highlighted the critical need for enhanced transparency and data sharing within the aftermarket sector. He emphasized that improved openness would enable airlines to plan more effectively and manage escalating costs. The report advocates four principal measures to address these challenges: opening aftermarket access and diversifying parts sourcing; enhancing supply chain visibility to promptly identify and mitigate risks; leveraging data analytics and predictive maintenance to optimize resource allocation; and expanding repair and parts capacity through advanced manufacturing techniques and expedited regulatory approvals.
Industry Responses and Broader Implications
In response to the supply chain disruptions, airlines are increasingly adopting alternative logistics strategies and investing in emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence. These innovations aim to improve the anticipation and mitigation of supply chain risks. Additionally, competitors are implementing stricter traceability protocols, particularly in light of regulatory developments like the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation, which demands greater transparency throughout the supply chain.
The ongoing challenges have also reignited discussions about the sustainability of the low-cost airline model. Despite mounting operational pressures and rising costs, Walsh dismissed assertions that this model is no longer viable, citing its continued global success and adaptability.
IATA and Oliver Wyman stress that restoring resilience and equilibrium to the aerospace supply chain requires coordinated collaboration among manufacturers, suppliers, lessors, and airlines. Without decisive and collective action, the industry risks facing escalating costs and operational inefficiencies that could undermine its long-term growth prospects.

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