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Jet Fuel Shortages Raise Questions About Alternative Energy Sources

Jet Fuel Shortages Raise Questions About Alternative Energy Sources
Tight supplies of jet fuel combined with rising demand are prompting increased scrutiny of aviation’s dependence on traditional fuels such as Jet A and A-1. Airlines are confronting the risk of last-minute flight cancellations caused by insufficient fuel availability at destination airports, a situation that could lead to costly reimbursements, re-routing, or returns for passengers. In response, industry leaders and regulators are intensifying efforts to diversify the aviation fuel mix to enhance supply resilience.
Evaluating Emerging Aviation Fuels
A recent report from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), funded by NASA, assesses the potential of five emerging aviation fuels to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities. The study, An Overview of Potential Future Aviation Energy Carriers, explores sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, liquefied ethane, and Jet X as possible alternatives to conventional jet fuel.
The adoption of these alternative fuels has been hindered by high costs and infrastructure challenges. Nevertheless, a significant advantage lies in their potential to be produced domestically from local feedstocks and electricity, thereby reducing reliance on imported oil and contributing to more stable fuel supplies. This consideration is increasingly critical as airlines face operational pressures, including market responses to shortages such as requests for exemptions from fuel uplift rules and slot obligations to avoid disruptions. Concurrently, competitors are accelerating their exploration of alternative fuels to secure future supply.
Kristi Moriarty, senior vehicle and infrastructure analysis researcher at NLR and lead author of the study, highlighted the urgency of this transition: “Demand for jet fuel is projected to rise from just over 100 billion gallons in 2025 to 165 billion gallons by 2050. With more research into emerging energy carriers, we could give the aviation industry the flexibility it needs to meet these rising demands—and with domestically produced fuels, not imported ones.”
Prospects and Challenges of Alternative Fuels
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) currently stands as the most commercially advanced alternative. It can replace up to 50% of Jet A in existing aircraft and is produced from fats, oils, greases, and increasingly from biomass, algae, and municipal waste. Although SAF has been available since 2016, it accounts for only about 1% of global jet fuel consumption. Its adoption has been constrained by high prices—rarely falling below $6 per gallon—and limited biorefinery capacity. However, as prices for Jet A and A-1 exceed $4 per gallon, the cost gap is narrowing. The NLR report estimates that available feedstocks could supply up to 80% of projected 2050 demand for jet fuel, but achieving this scale will require substantial investment, cost reductions, and widespread industry acceptance.
Other alternatives, including liquid hydrogen, liquefied natural gas, liquefied ethane, and Jet X, each face distinct production and infrastructure hurdles. Despite these challenges, they offer the promise of domestic sourcing and reduced exposure to the volatility of global oil markets, making them attractive options for long-term energy security in aviation.
Regulatory and Market Dynamics
The European Commission has underscored the importance of ensuring airlines maintain adequate fuel supplies, clarifying that high fuel prices do not constitute extraordinary circumstances that would exempt carriers from passenger compensation obligations. As airlines and regulators navigate these complex challenges, the momentum behind alternative fuels is expected to grow, with a focus on operational resilience and passenger protection.
With jet fuel shortages threatening to disrupt travel and increase costs, the aviation sector’s shift toward alternative energy sources is emerging as a critical issue—not only for sustainability but also for maintaining operational continuity.

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