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Aviation Mechanic Shortage Expected to Deepen

Aviation Mechanic Shortage Expected to Deepen
A recent report from the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) and consulting firm Oliver Wyman highlights a looming escalation in the shortage of aviation mechanics, projected to intensify in 2025 despite recent improvements in training and certification. In 2024, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued 9,013 new mechanic certificates, marking the second-highest annual total since 1999. Approximately two-thirds of these new mechanics graduated from the nation’s 208 FAA-certificated Aviation Maintenance Technician Schools (AMTS). Enrollment at these institutions increased by 9.5% last year, while certification rates rose to 63%, reflecting the integration of advanced FAA testing protocols into many school curricula.
Growing Demand Outpaces Workforce Expansion
Despite these positive trends, the growth in qualified mechanics is insufficient to meet the rapidly increasing demand. The North American commercial aircraft fleet is expected to expand by roughly 13% over the next decade. This expansion, combined with an aging fleet and heightened aircraft utilization, is driving what the report terms a maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) “super cycle.” Consequently, the study forecasts a shortfall of certificated mechanics amounting to about 10% of commercial aviation needs in 2025—approximately 5,338 mechanics. This deficit is anticipated to widen before gradually easing to an estimated shortage of 4,200 by 2035. More broadly, the overall maintenance workforce deficit is projected to reach 17,800 personnel this year and exceed 22,000 by 2027.
Contributing Factors and Industry Response
Several factors contribute to the persistent shortage. The current workforce has an average age of 54, with a significant number of retirements expected in the near term. Additionally, the proportion of veterans transitioning into civilian maintenance roles declined nearly 14% in 2024, with fewer than 10% of experienced veterans entering comparable positions, according to ATEC and Oliver Wyman. Compounding these challenges, about one-third of available A&P training seats remain unfilled, even as many schools report waitlists. This paradox is attributed to attrition, faculty shortages, and limited availability of examiners.
To mitigate these issues, experts advocate for stronger workforce pipeline development. They recommend establishing partnerships between industry stakeholders and youth organizations to create clearer career pathways and attract new talent to aviation maintenance. As companies confront complex growth and sustainability challenges, the aviation consulting services market is also expanding, with organizations increasingly seeking specialized guidance to address workforce and operational concerns.
While training and certification efforts have made steady progress, the aviation industry faces a deepening shortage of mechanics that threatens maintenance operations and fleet expansion in the coming years. Addressing this gap will require coordinated action across education, industry, and policy sectors to secure a sustainable pipeline of skilled aviation maintenance professionals.

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