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Paris Airshow Anticipates New Jet Orders Despite Conflict and Tariffs

Paris Airshow Anticipates New Jet Orders Despite Conflict and Tariffs
Robust Demand Amid Geopolitical and Economic Challenges
The upcoming Paris Airshow, scheduled from June 16 to 20 at Le Bourget, is set to witness significant aircraft order announcements despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent U.S. tariffs, and supply chain disruptions that continue to challenge the global aviation and defense industries. As the world’s largest aviation trade event, the show will serve as a prominent stage for manufacturers to showcase advancements in artificial intelligence and autonomous technologies, alongside unveiling major commercial and military deals.
Industry forecasts, including those from IBA, suggest that the event could generate orders for up to 800 commercial aircraft, reflecting strong market demand even in the face of considerable uncertainty. Airbus is expected to commence the event with two substantial orders from Saudi Arabia, underscoring the Gulf region’s expanding air travel market. The European manufacturer also faces competition from Brazil’s Embraer, which is vying for a potential AirAsia contract involving approximately 100 A220 jets. Meanwhile, Boeing is anticipated to secure a significant fleet renewal deal with Royal Air Maroc, although its overall presence may be more restrained following large agreements secured during the recent U.S. presidential visit to the Gulf.
Navigating Tariffs and Supply Chain Complexities
Behind the public announcements, major aerospace firms including Airbus, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon are grappling with the lingering effects of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration and the broader impact of global conflicts. The recent U.S.-China trade truce has provided some relief, yet base tariffs of 10% remain in place, compelling continued industry lobbying for exemptions. Christian Scherer, CEO of Airbus’ commercial aircraft division, highlighted the ongoing challenges faced by suppliers still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, describing the current environment as one of renewed uncertainty.
Both Airbus and Boeing are actively managing the operational consequences of these tariffs while navigating a complex international landscape. Despite these obstacles, analysts remain optimistic about the commercial outcomes of the Paris Airshow. Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, noted that the event is expected to be successful for orders, particularly benefiting Airbus as the host nation’s flagship manufacturer.
Defense Spending and Technological Innovation in Focus
The Paris Airshow unfolds amid heightened defense expenditures and evolving geopolitical alliances. The conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East have disrupted airspace, rerouted commercial traffic, and increased insurance costs. In response, European countries are significantly boosting military budgets, with Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom announcing major investments in air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and next-generation fighter jets—levels of spending not seen since the Cold War.
This year’s exhibition will prominently feature a diverse array of drones, including low-cost, expendable models that have demonstrated effectiveness in Ukraine. These systems are increasingly regarded as vital components of modern warfare, offering scalable and cost-efficient alternatives to traditional manned aircraft.
As European nations reassess their dependence on U.S. defense support amid shifting political dynamics, the aerospace industry’s resilience and adaptability will be on full display at Le Bourget. However, ongoing supply chain vulnerabilities and tariff uncertainties continue to influence the trajectory of the global aerospace sector.

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