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Airbus Projects Over 4,000 New Jets in Middle East and Africa by 2044

Airbus Projects Over 4,000 New Jets in Middle East and Africa by 2044
Robust Growth Forecast for MEA Aviation Market
In anticipation of the 2025 Dubai Airshow, Airbus has released an ambitious market outlook for the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, forecasting substantial growth and a surge in demand for new aircraft over the next two decades. Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, announced that the company expects to deliver 4,080 new aircraft to the MEA region between 2024 and 2044. This expansion is projected to generate over 250,000 new jobs and increase the regional fleet to 3,700 aircraft by 2044, more than doubling its current size.
Shift in Fleet Composition and Market Dynamics
A notable aspect of Airbus’s forecast is the anticipated high proportion of widebody aircraft in the MEA fleet. Unlike most global markets, which typically maintain an 80/20 split favoring single-aisle jets, the MEA region is expected to exhibit a 60/40 split, with widebodies comprising 42% of the future fleet. Of the 4,080 new aircraft, 2,318 are projected to be single-aisle models, while 1,762 will be widebodies. This trend reflects the region’s historical preference for larger aircraft, driven by its strategic role as a global aviation hub and the dominance of major carriers such as Emirates, Etihad, and Air Arabia based in the UAE.
The forecast is underpinned by sustained growth in passenger traffic, with Airbus projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% for the region over the next 20 years. This growth is attributed to rising GDP per capita, demographic shifts, increased affordability of air travel, and improved yields per aircraft. The MEA region’s share of global available seat-kilometres (ASK) is also expected to increase, highlighting its expanding influence on international air routes.
Challenges and Industry Implications
Airbus maintains a significant presence in the region, employing over 3,300 staff across its Defense and Space and Commercial Aircraft divisions, and serving 39 commercial operators who currently fly more than 850 Airbus aircraft. The positive reception to Airbus’s forecast reflects strong confidence in the region’s aviation prospects.
However, the anticipated growth presents considerable challenges. Meeting the high demand will necessitate substantial investment in infrastructure development, workforce training, and supply chain resilience. Furthermore, the robust outlook is likely to intensify competition, particularly from rival manufacturers aiming to capture market share in the expanding regional and narrowbody aircraft segments.
As the MEA aviation market continues to evolve rapidly, Airbus’s projections underscore both the significant opportunities and the complex challenges that lie ahead for the industry.

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