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Aircraft and Engine Shortages Disrupt Aviation Supply Chain

Aircraft and Engine Shortages Disrupt Aviation Supply Chain
A comprehensive report from aviation investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter & Co. reveals that a global shortage of aircraft, engines, and spare parts is profoundly impacting the aviation industry. Commercial aircraft backlogs have now exceeded 17,000 units, representing approximately 12 years of production at current manufacturing rates. Among these challenges, engine supply has emerged as the most critical bottleneck, significantly constraining industry growth and operational capacity.
Supply Chain Pressures and Economic Impact
The aviation sector is grappling with intense demand driven by fleet expansion, recovering passenger traffic, and robust cargo markets. Manufacturers and suppliers are struggling to meet these needs, resulting in substantial cost increases for airlines. The report projects that supply chain-related expenses will surpass $11 billion in 2025 alone, encompassing higher maintenance costs, increased engine leasing, and the need for greater spare parts inventory.
Engine shortages are particularly severe, especially for next-generation GTF and LEAP engines, which require more frequent maintenance due to durability concerns. Engine overhaul turnaround times have dramatically lengthened, rising from 60–90 days in 2019 to between 180 and 240 days today. This delay has left approximately 60 completed Airbus aircraft grounded without engines in 2025, while over 3,500 commercial engines await critical components such as castings and forgings.
These constraints are compelling airlines to extend the operational life of older aircraft beyond their planned retirement dates. This extension increases demand for engine leasing, spare parts, and maintenance services, while simultaneously reducing operational flexibility. Global spending on maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) is expected to grow from $136 billion in 2025 to $193 billion by 2036, with engine-related MRO costs alone projected to reach $103 billion.
Broader Supply Chain Fragility and Industry Adaptation
The supply chain challenges extend beyond engines and airframes. A persistent shortage of aircraft windows, affecting both commercial airliners and business jets, has further exposed vulnerabilities within the aerospace supply chain. Melrose Industries, the owner of the primary manufacturer of these windows, aims to restore full production capacity by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, airlines and repair facilities are implementing conservation measures to manage the shortage, highlighting the need for sustained industry efforts to resolve ongoing disruptions.
In response to limited aircraft and engine availability, airlines are increasingly turning to aftermarket solutions. The market for Used Serviceable Material (USM) is anticipated to grow from $8 billion in 2025 to over $10.8 billion by 2033. Similarly, the Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) market is projected to expand from $11.8 billion to more than $16.1 billion by 2034. Demand for Designated Engineering Representative (DER) repairs is also rising, as operators seek to extend component life and reduce dependence on original equipment manufacturers.
To mitigate these challenges, airlines are adopting strategies such as extending fleet life, increasing spare engine inventories, diversifying suppliers, and securing long-term maintenance agreements. Despite these efforts, supply chain constraints are expected to persist for several years, placing ongoing pressure on the industry to innovate and adapt in order to maintain operational resilience.

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