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Cirium Forecasts $3.4 Trillion in Global Aircraft Deliveries by 2044

Cirium Projects $3.4 Trillion in Global Aircraft Deliveries by 2044
Cirium’s latest Fleet Forecast anticipates the delivery of approximately 46,500 new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft worldwide over the next two decades, representing a total market value of $3.4 trillion. This comprehensive analysis, conducted by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, takes into account ongoing industry challenges such as persistent supply chain disruptions, certification delays for new aircraft programs, and geopolitical uncertainties that continue to influence market dynamics.
Market Trends and Regional Growth
The report indicates a 6% reduction in expected aircraft deliveries over the next seven years compared to last year’s projections, largely attributed to slower-than-expected production increases in single-aisle aircraft. Despite these short-term setbacks, Cirium maintains a positive long-term outlook, forecasting a 1% rise in total deliveries through 2044. Asia is poised to be the primary driver of global fleet expansion, accounting for 45% of all new aircraft deliveries, with China and India leading demand growth in the region.
Airbus and Boeing are projected to dominate the market, supplying 85% of all aircraft delivered and representing 92% of the total market value. China’s COMAC is expected to capture 6% of global demand during the forecast period. Currently, single-aisle aircraft constitute 71% of the global fleet, while twin-aisle and regional jets have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The global freighter fleet is also forecasted to grow by 41% by 2044, reflecting sustained demand in air cargo.
Industry Challenges and Technological Advancements
Significant challenges persist within the aviation sector. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that ongoing supply chain disruptions could cost airlines up to $11 billion in 2025, leading many carriers to reconsider their fleet renewal strategies amid production delays. The competitive landscape remains intense, highlighted by Airbus’s A320 recently surpassing the Boeing 737 as the most-delivered jet in history, underscoring the rivalry between the two manufacturers.
Digital transformation is emerging as a critical trend shaping the future of aviation. Airbus projects a fourfold increase in digitally connected aircraft by 2044, as airlines invest heavily in advanced technologies to improve operational efficiency and enhance passenger experience. The business jet market is also expected to approach $40 billion in 2025, with balanced growth anticipated in both preowned and new-production segments.
Stephen Burnside, global head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, emphasized the resilience of the industry, stating, “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds. Long-term demand remains robust across every region, airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs continue to incrementally increase their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft families. The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.”
Focus on Conventional Propulsion and Operational Insights
The Fleet Forecast encompasses aircraft with at least 30 seats and their freighter equivalents, excluding electric, hybrid, or hydrogen-powered models. Cirium notes that commercial aircraft development is expected to remain centered on conventional propulsion systems, with an increasing emphasis on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the industry seeks to reduce its environmental impact.
Recent operational data from Cirium revealed that North American airlines were the most affected by global IT outages in July 2024, experiencing a 98% surge in cancellations. Europe, Asia Pacific, and North America recorded the highest cancellation rates, while Latin America and the Middle East & Africa were minimally impacted.

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