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Challenges Facing the Air Cargo Industry

Challenges Facing the Air Cargo Industry
Economic Outlook and Industry Projections
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty, the global trade outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The International Monetary Fund projects global GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% this year. However, following a record 7% expansion in 2025, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development expects global trade growth to moderate to 2.6% in the current year.
Within this context, the air cargo sector anticipates rising demand and revenues, supported by the broader airline industry's robust performance. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that industry revenues will exceed the $1 trillion threshold by 2026, reaching approximately $1.05 trillion. Net profits are expected to increase to $41 billion, up from $39.5 billion last year. Cargo revenues are projected to grow by 2.1%, with volumes rising 2.4% and yields remaining largely stable.
Supply Chain Constraints and Operational Challenges
Despite these encouraging figures, the air cargo industry faces significant challenges that temper its growth prospects. Demand for air cargo is expected to outpace the availability of aircraft and engines, as the aviation supply chain continues to grapple with bottlenecks and structural vulnerabilities. The sector’s heavy reliance on a limited number of key suppliers exposes it to potential disruptions. IATA predicts that aircraft supply will not align with demand until at least 2031 to 2034.
The backlog for new aircraft production has now surpassed 17,000 units, representing nearly 60% of the active global fleet. Engine production is lagging even further behind, resulting in an increasing number of parked aircraft awaiting turbines. These supply chain constraints are exacerbated by rising material costs and volatile freight markets, placing additional pressure on profit margins.
Operational expenses are also on the rise. Airlines are expected to incur an additional $4.2 billion in fuel costs as they continue to operate older, less fuel-efficient aircraft for longer periods than initially planned. Overall, supply chain disruptions are estimated to add more than $11 billion in extra costs to the industry.
Market Pressures and Strategic Responses
The freighter segment of the market faces its own set of challenges. With aging widebody aircraft remaining in passenger service longer, fewer planes are available for conversion to all-cargo configurations, driving up prices for suitable candidates. The introduction of new freighter models and conversion programs is hindered by prolonged certification processes, with aircraft such as the A350 freighter and converted 787s still awaiting regulatory approval.
Beyond operational difficulties, the industry must also contend with potential new tariffs, labor disputes, and evolving pricing models influenced by updates to the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) and shifts in carrier networks. In response to these pressures, competitors are exploring strategic realignments and increasing investments in emerging technologies, including autonomous systems and hybrid unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) propulsion, to sustain a competitive advantage.
While the air cargo sector’s revenue outlook remains positive, its trajectory is challenged by persistent supply chain disruptions, escalating costs, and shifting market dynamics. The industry’s capacity to navigate these obstacles will be crucial in determining its ability to fully leverage the anticipated growth in global trade.

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