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Australia's Alliance Airlines to Review Business Model

Alliance Airlines Initiates Business Model Review Amid Rising Operating Costs
Alliance Airlines, based in Brisbane, has announced a comprehensive review of its wet lease contracts and overall business model in response to a significant increase in operating expenses. The carrier has warned that its annual financial results will be "materially lower" than previously forecast, prompting the launch of a cost reduction program targeting purchasing and logistics, alongside plans to divest non-core assets.
Financial Performance and Cost Pressures
In a disclosure to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on November 7, 2025, Alliance Airlines revised its expected EBITDA for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, to a range of AUD190 million to AUD210 million (USD123–136 million). This represents a substantial downgrade from analysts’ consensus estimates exceeding AUD250 million (USD162 million). The airline attributed the revision primarily to escalating costs associated with fleet acquisition and maintenance. Rising prices for aircraft and engines, combined with higher-than-anticipated maintenance expenses, have increased depreciation charges by AUD15 million (USD9.7 million). Additionally, annualized costs for repairs, maintenance, and logistics are projected to rise by AUD12 million (USD7.8 million).
Further financial challenges include an unresolved AUD4.2 million (USD2.7 million) dispute with a major, unnamed customer and an unplanned AUD3.5 million (USD2.3 million) expense related to the accelerated implementation of a new inventory management agreement. Despite these setbacks, Alliance Airlines emphasized that it remains profitable, maintains strong cash flow, and continues to meet its banking covenants.
To address these issues, the airline has engaged external advisors to review its depreciation methodologies and evaluate its property portfolio for potential asset sales. Trading in Alliance Airlines shares resumed on the ASX after a week-long suspension following the announcement of the revised guidance.
Leadership Changes and Fleet Overview
The company’s leadership transition has also accelerated, with founding managing director Scott McMillan stepping down three weeks earlier than initially planned, effective November 7. Stuart Tully, formerly joint managing director, has assumed full management responsibilities.
Alliance Airlines operates a fleet comprising forty-three Embraer E190s, twenty-four Fokker 100s, and twelve Fokker 70s, according to ch-aviation data. The airline also owns five additional E190s currently dry-leased to Airnorth until at least 2030. The delivery of ten more E190s, originally scheduled earlier, has been delayed by approximately six months, with completion now expected by mid-2026. The carrier provides a combination of scheduled and charter services, primarily supporting Australia’s resources sector, and wet-leases regional capacity to Virgin Australia (Fokker aircraft) and Qantas (E190s).
Industry Context and Strategic Implications
Alliance Airlines’ strategic review occurs amid broader challenges facing the aviation industry, including volatile fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainties, issues recently underscored by Qantas in its market outlook. The airline’s planned adjustments may attract increased scrutiny from competitors and regulators, particularly if changes affect regional air traffic control dynamics. Other regional carriers, such as ANA Holdings and Southwest Airlines, are similarly reassessing their business models in response to intensifying competition and shifting market demands. Moreover, the Federal Aviation Administration’s initiatives to reduce air traffic volumes in key markets to alleviate air traffic control congestion could influence how Alliance Airlines adapts its operations in the future.

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