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North America Advances Toward ICAO’s 2030 Clean Energy Goal While Other Regions Fall Behind

North America Advances Toward ICAO’s 2030 Clean Energy Goal While Other Regions Fall Behind
North America on Track to Meet ICAO’s Emissions Reduction Target
North America is currently the only region poised to meet the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s (ICAO) 2030 clean energy target, according to recent analysis by aviation market intelligence firm IBA. ICAO’s goal mandates a 5% reduction in CO₂ emissions from international aviation by 2030, primarily through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other clean energy sources. While North America is expected to achieve this milestone, other regions—including Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East—are forecasted to fall short unless they significantly expand SAF production capacity.
IBA’s evaluation integrates ICAO’s latest SAF production data with independent forecasts of global fuel demand to assess whether each region is developing sufficient supply to align with credible long-term decarbonisation pathways. The findings reveal that North America’s current SAF capacity is slightly below the 2030 requirement; however, when accounting for facilities under construction, the region is projected to marginally exceed ICAO’s benchmark. This progress is largely attributed to strong policy support in the United States, including the federal SAF Grand Challenge, tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, and state-level initiatives such as the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. These measures have unlocked financing for a diverse array of SAF technologies, enabling continued advancement despite some federal policy rollbacks.
Challenges Facing Other Regions
In contrast, progress in other regions remains uneven. Europe, despite a robust pipeline of SAF projects and the introduction of the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation—which mandates increasing SAF blend levels from 2025—faces constraints due to stringent sustainability criteria and high production costs. The European Commission’s new Sustainable Transport Investment Plan, which aims to mobilise approximately €100 billion across aviation and shipping sectors, seeks to accelerate the deployment of renewable and low-carbon fuels. Nevertheless, Europe still lags behind the capacity required to meet ICAO’s 5% emissions reduction target.
Regions such as Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East are significantly behind in SAF development, hindered by limited operational capacity and a scarcity of advanced projects. IBA highlights that rapid investment acceleration and the establishment of enabling policy frameworks will be critical for these regions to meet their long-term climate objectives.
Broader Market Dynamics and Innovation
The global landscape for clean energy in aviation is shaped by a combination of market dynamics and regulatory pressures. North American companies continue to advance clean energy initiatives, driven not only by domestic policies but also by international regulations, market competition, and the potential profitability of clean technology investments. Global firms are increasingly motivated to comply with stringent European Union emissions standards and meet evolving customer expectations, even as some governments reduce federal climate commitments.
Beyond aviation, the drive for decarbonisation is fostering innovation in other sectors. The emerging small modular reactor (SMR) market, for instance, is anticipated to play a significant role in reducing emissions across industrial sectors, with a projected global capacity of 700GW by 2050. Meanwhile, regions such as Australia face ongoing challenges in meeting renewable energy targets, with a heavy reliance on wind power and coal-fired stations underscoring the complexity of the energy transition.
Globally, operational and planned SAF facilities are expected to supply only 4.5% of jet fuel by 2025, highlighting the substantial scale-up required to meet ICAO’s 2030 milestone and the broader 2050 net-zero commitments. As North America leads the way, the aviation sector’s ability to achieve its climate goals will depend on sustained investment, policy innovation, and international collaboration.

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