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Airlines Say Supply Chain Issues Will Persist Amid Political Risks

Airlines Warn of Prolonged Supply Chain Disruptions Amid Political and Economic Risks
As the global aviation industry gathers in Singapore for the Changi Aviation Summit, airline executives and regulators are preparing for an extended period of supply chain challenges compounded by rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Despite reaffirming their long-term commitments to climate goals, industry leaders cautioned that ongoing bottlenecks in aircraft manufacturing and maintenance continue to limit capacity and show little sign of abating.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), highlighted the persistent impact of these disruptions on the eve of the Singapore Airshow, Asia’s largest aviation exhibition. Major aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing remain entangled in supply chain constraints that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, engine producers including GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney face the dual pressures of fulfilling demand for new aircraft while maintaining existing fleets, further straining resources.
Geopolitical and Economic Challenges
The aviation sector’s difficulties are exacerbated by a complex array of geopolitical and economic risks. U.S. import tariffs and evolving trade policies have altered global air freight dynamics, with air cargo volumes between Asia and North America declining by 0.8 percent last year, even as shipments between Europe and Asia increased by 10.3 percent, according to Walsh. Korean Air has also sounded alarms over intensifying competition and geopolitical volatility, underscoring the industry’s vulnerability to abrupt policy shifts and trade disputes.
In addition to tariffs and trade uncertainties, airlines are grappling with rising material costs, labor shortages, and volatile freight markets. Analysis from Everstream Analytics identifies global political divisions, shifting trade regulations, and extreme weather events as the most significant threats to aviation supply chains. These challenges are compounded by infrastructure limitations and escalating cybersecurity risks. American Airlines, in its recent financial disclosures, further highlighted concerns about potential economic downturns, regulatory changes, and the fiercely competitive nature of the industry.
Growth Prospects and Regulatory Tensions
Despite these headwinds, the Asia-Pacific region remains the fastest-growing air travel market globally, driven by strong demand in China and India. Passenger traffic in the region is projected to increase by 7.3 percent in 2026. However, Toshiyuki Onuma, the newly elected president of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) governing council, emphasized that accommodating such growth will require fundamental transformation. “A system built for four billion passengers cannot support three times that number without transformation,” Onuma stated. He also stressed the urgency of accelerating progress toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The summit also brought renewed attention to tensions surrounding aircraft certification, which threaten the established framework of global aviation regulations under the Chicago Convention. While Onuma refrained from directly addressing recent calls by former U.S. President Donald Trump for Canada to certify certain U.S.-designed business jets under threat of tariffs, he reaffirmed ICAO’s commitment to technical neutrality and international cooperation. “Only together can we achieve a sector that is safer, more sustainable, and more competitive,” he told the assembly of 350 aviation executives and regulators.
Industry experts warn that the increasing politicization and “weaponization” of global supply chains could further destabilize the sector. A senior regulatory official underscored the importance of maintaining the integrity of safety oversight, stating, “There can be no bargaining over certification,” reflecting widespread concern that political pressures may undermine international aviation standards.

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